Victory and a third term for the radical right Law and Justice party would give it the chance to complete an illiberal takeover of the state.
As the most consequential Polish election campaign since the fall of communism got into its stride this summer, one study found that almost 100% of the coverage accorded by state television to the main opposition candidate, Donald Tusk, was negative. The only surprise in this was that the occasional even-handed story somehow slipped through the net.
Poland’s ruling radical right Law and Justice party (PiS) has systematically eroded liberal democratic norms over the past eight years. Public TV and radio channels have been straightforwardly commandeered and now, as PiS seeks a third term, they are being deployed as the government’s most potent propaganda arm. For months, Mr Tusk, who was Poland’s prime minister from 2007 to 2014 before becoming president of the European Council, has been subjected to scurrilous vilification.
On Monday night, during the only scheduled TV debate of the campaign, presenters delivered lengthy critiques of Mr Tusk’s political record before asking any questions. Playing to government arguments that Mr Tusk is a stooge for German economic interests, Poland’s equivalent of the BBC has broadcast attacks on Mr Tusk’s Polish identity, referencing his German grandmother. His Civic Platform party (PO) is suing one national newspaper for a front page likening him to Hitler, complete with the headline “Gott mit uns” (God with us).
Coverage in the regional press – which has largely been bought up by Orlen, the PiS-supporting state oil company – has relentlessly echoed anti-Tusk talking points. The state-owned postal service has distributed anti-Tusk leaflets to households. Orlen has been accused of artificially lowering gas prices in the lead-up to Sunday’s poll to to assist the government’s cause, which it denies.
Despite such grotesque abuse of democratic norms and the resort to vicious, post-truth politics, the election remains too close to call in a deeply divided nation. But the nature of the campaign illustrates the stakes.
In neighbouring Hungary, Viktor Orbán has used four successive terms of office to build a network of civic influence that insulates his government from proper scrutiny and accountability. Jaros?aw Kaczy?ski, the chairman of PiS, has followed the same playbook. Autonomous institutions have been politicised, and checks on government power, such as an independent judiciary, undermined. Another victory would give Mr Kaczy?ski scope to complete the job of eliminating liberal counterweights to PiS hegemony, taking Poland closer towards embodying what one commentator has described as “totalitarian democracy.”
At a time when the European Union is confronting daunting geopolitical challenges, requiring a spirit of unity if they are to be addressed, such an outcome would be both depressing and ominous. On the climate emergency, Ukraine and the migration crisis, it already seems clear that Europe’s populist, nationalist right will become an increasingly disruptive force in the months and years ahead. And from July next year to June 2025, by malign chance, the EU presidency will be held first by Hungary and then by Poland.
After two parliamentary terms with PiS at the helm, Poland’s political culture is in a more fragile, febrile and polarised state than at any point since 1989. The demonised Mr Tusk is right to say that the future of his country’s democracy is at stake on Sunday. All elections matter, but some matter more than others.