As planned, the table below maps various thoughts regarding climate change – the biggest crisis of our time. Entries are noted for both those who propose action and those who resist it, highlighting the differences that have blocked action for decades.
Cognitive Maps have become the very heart of AI. To understand and automate some human activity, we first have to define its components, how they interact, and the goals. We have to map the cognitive terrain.
As proposed earlier, these data, beliefs, and other thoughts are organized along the cognitive scale of 9 functions identified in our AI vs Humans study. Not perfect, but a sound framework out of our TechCast Expert work.
If this study proves useful, we could expand it to include other intractable conflicts — abortion, gun control, inequality, immigration, etc.
Cognitive Map of Climate Change
The following analysis suggests provocative strategies that could resolve this conflict:
Analysis of the Cognitive Map
9. Vision Thoughtful, plausible, and inspiring visions of sustainable futures may help resolve the climate problem. If done well, especially with the participation of those opposed, some hearts and minds are likely to soften to grasp that a better world is possible.
8. Imagination, Creativity We certainly could benefit from a healthy dose of creative thought to bolster a sustainable vision.
7. Values and Beliefs This function may be the nub of the problem. How to recast the diehard beliefs of climate deniers? Some will never yield, of course, but an honest engagement with those holding opposing belief systems could possibly shift opinion toward reality, especially if supported by compelling visions and the hard facts further down in this table.
6. Purpose, Will, Choice Noting the actions being taken by governments, corporations and communities should have desirable impacts on overcoming resistance.
5. Emotion, Empathy If those doubtful about the need for change could witness some of the enormous tragedies possibly ahead, a change of heart and mind would make a difference.
4. Decision, Logic This cognitive function demands a great deal. How can we engage people in realistic problem-solving experiences that weigh the evidence to reach sound conclusions for change?
3. Information, Knowledge, Understanding See above. These are major basic elements needed to reach sound choices.
2. Learning, Memory Better processes and information sources are needed to break through misunderstandings to gain accurate knowledge.
1. Perception, Awareness Ahhh! The very source of experiential life. What could creative simulations of the disasters lying ahead possibly do to shift awareness? Visits to locales actually experiencing climate shift? Meeting those who have taken action?
Three Alternative Scenarios
A useful outcome of this study is to examine scenarios of various strategies and their outcomes at about 2030. While endless scenarios are possible, TechCast proposes the following 3 scenarios that seem to capture the most dominant variations:
Ideal Resolution
The analysis above across all 9 cognitive functions leads to the following “ideal” scenario in which key actors work together quickly to fend off more extreme weather.
Proponents of resolving the climate crisis invited opposition leaders to actually experience climate disasters. They visited locales with unusually heavy floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and violent winds, and they spoke with victims and change advocates. Local governments and corporations showed remedial actions are possible that would have desirable impacts and overcome resistance.
They also examined a variety of information sources to break through misunderstandings and gain accurate knowledge of the problem. Engaged people in realistic problem-solving experiences that weighed the evidence to reach their own conclusions. By witnessing these climate tragedies and better understanding the even bigger dangers ahead, many had a change of heart.
Some opponents would not yield, of course, but engagement with those holding opposing beliefs moved people toward a realistic understanding of the issues. After engaging different parties in participative discussions and problem-solving, along with a dose of creative thought, a compelling vision emerged that most agreed would lead to a healthy and sustainable world.
Meet the Challenge
The mid-2020s proved critical as scorching heat, drought, wildfires, floods and violent storms devastated the Earth, leaving parts of the southern US, Middle East, Africa and Asia uninhabitable. The resulting economic disruption caused the global depression that had long been feared as national debt reached stratospheric levels.
Climate-change refugees from Arabic nations, and some Europeans, stormed the Nordic nations and Russia looking for relief from the heat, while Mexicans and people from the southern US states fled to Canada. At the Eastern seaboard of the US, the costs for building sea walls reached trillions of dollars. Still, New York City struggled to subdue chronic flooding, much like Venice. Public riots soon forced politicians to take serious steps to curtail CO2 emissions.
Forecasts for the coming years were even more severe, creating a global shift of opinion to resolve the climate crisis. The political and social pressure was intense, but fresh ideas and new leadership emerged to rally a movement to “Create a Sustainable World.” Values and beliefs flipped as former climate deniers found faith in Nature, and environmentalists accepted the need for economic reality.
Green technologies and environmental research were shared around the globe. A universal green tax was adopted, with revenues to be returned to taxpayers. And with millions of high-tech jobs opening in environmental work to replace positions lost to automation, the global economy entered a period of clean growth. It is estimated that “peak CO2” or “peak warming” was likely to be reached about 2034, starting the long process of cooling the Earth. Finally.
Avoid the Challenge
The same environmental threats as above took place, but the comfortable path of muddling through prevailed. The onset of more scorching heat, drought, wildfires, floods and violent storms was devastating, but opinion remained divided, so there was insufficient political will for serious change.
Regions adapted in various ways. Families left southern regions as they became uninhabitable, so Canada, Nordic nations, and Russia boomed in population. To fend off excessive immigrants, some countries built borders walls to limit passage across boundaries. The economic damage was severe, with lost jobs, rising poverty and lesser social services. The professional and wealthy classes maintained the bulk of national income.
Investments were poured into tech solutions, such as green energy, carbon capture and geoengineering, although it was too little too late. Environmental decline continued, fed by big increases in air conditioning and other attempts to stave off the heat, creating a positive feedback loop that increased the load of CO2. All this merely accelerated the climate problem.
Please note that the above are simply TechCast’s preliminary thoughts on these profound questions. That’s where you come in, dear readers. Using our customary method of collective intelligence, we now invite you to weigh in with comments to help clarify this topic. Kindly add, modify or challenge entries in this cognitive map. Suggest solutions that may resolve the conflict, and improvements in these 3 scenarios. And tell us whatever else may be useful. Contributors will be cited in our next newsletter for framing the topic better.
Send comments to Bill at [email protected]. And please keep comments short — no more than 100 words. To encourage people to read web content, we have learned that less is more,
For a final note, it is important to recognize that the dominant issues blocking action on climate involve subjective forms of thought (5-9) rather than objective thought (1-4). Objective thought (knowledge, logic, etc) is crucial certainly. But the main reason nations are unable to resolve the issues of our time is that action is blocked by subjective consciousness (emotion, purpose, values, beliefs, vision, etc). This conclusion illustrates the central thesis of Bill’s new book, Beyond Knowledge, which follows.