Science for Environment Policy: Migration in response to environmental change

Jay OwenTrendspotting, Earth Systems Science

Migration in response to environmental change

Editorial

Migration and environmental change: examining the relationship

1. Context

Over coming years, migration flows related to climate change are expected to increase, particularly in the world’s poorest countries. This is because climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme environmental events, such as drought, sea level rise, floods and hurricanes. These events not only damage infrastructure, homes and the means for livelihoods, but can result, both directly and indirectly, in increased human migration and displacement. For example, severe floods in China in May 2010, and Pakistan in the summer of 2010, were each reported to have displaced over 10 million people.

Although one of the lowest totals ever recorded, in 20141 over 12 700 people died or went missing as a result of natural disasters (including earthquakes, hurricanes and other severe weather events) and man-made disasters. In 2014 man-made disasters for example included the failure of a dam in Zimbabwe which resulted in 2000 people losing their homes; and maritime disasters claimed 2 118 victims.

The links between environmental changes and migration are extremely complex. Migration is often the result of a variety of layered causes – economic, social and political – which are accentuated by changing environmental conditions as well as frequently by developmental and demographic conditions. The patterns of movement of environmental migrants can also vary – these may be internal within a country or international; voluntary or forced; temporary or permanent. Forced migration might result from an environmental catastrophe such as a tsunami or flood, or a government-instigated relocation, while more gradual process of migration could be caused by slow onset environmental deterioration, such as the long-term effects of drought on agriculture experienced in parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Somalia and Egypt.

Although not all related to climate change, extreme weather events in 2010 affected over 320 million people – the highest number this century – according to the 2013 World Disasters report2 from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). Torrential rain caused the recent floods in Malawi in January 2015, which resulted in the displacement of more than 330 000 people, according to UNICEF. Although a figure subject to much debate, around 200 million people will be permanently displaced by climate change by 2050, according to the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change3.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) anticipates that climate change will affect migration flows in three main ways: firstly the effects of warming in some areas will gradually reduce agricultural productivity and degrade ecosystem services such as clean water and fertile soil. Secondly, the increase in extreme weather events – especially heavy rainfall and resulting flash or river floods in tropical regions – will affect increasing numbers of people, resulting in mass displacement. Thirdly, sea-level rise will permanently destroy extensive low-lying coastal areas – resulting in the permanent relocation of millions of people.

In Europe, environmental migration is already an issue that demands some attention. The EU has recognised that a comprehensive migration policy needs to consider environmentally triggered migration – as in its 2013 Staff Working Document accompanying the EU Adaptation Strategy, ‘Climate change, environmental degradation and migration‘, and is aware that the impact of earlier European industrial policies seems to have contributed to the speed of environmental changes to come. But what is actually coming?

In its Fifth Assessment Report4, the IPCC projects sea level rise of between 26 and 82 cm by 2100 – and the UK Meteorological Office and several European researchers have used a 180-190 cm average rise as the low-probability upper limit by 2100. Under intermediate warming scenarios, most models project that, by 2050, north Africa and the interior of southern Africa will experience rainfall decreases during the growing season that are more than the natural average.

Although one of several scenarios possible by 2100, a two metre sea level rise would inundate large areas of Europe, parts of the northern Mediterranean (Venice), as well as around the North Sea (UK and Netherlands), which would certainly force relocations. A typology of possible policy alternatives for environmentally induced migration is mapped out by the EU’s Staff Working Document. These cover prevention, adaptation, resettlement and management of future flows of people. Among these are both prevention of migration and the consideration of migration itself as an adaptation strategy.

The EU is currently funding the study, Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP)5. This research from The International Organisation for Migration, aims to increase knowledge on the relationship between migration and environmental change, including climate change – and on how migration could benefit adaptation stategies for societies.

Since more and more people live in regions and locations highly vulnerable to disasters and other impacts of climate change, planned relocation, together with migration, has an important role to play in future strategies to respond and adapt to such impacts. Accordingly, Member States may use planned relocation as a potential policy option to protect affected populations. National relocation guidelines are being developed as part of a multi-partner project funded by the European Commission, whose overall aim is to address a legal gap regarding cross-border displacement in the context of disasters. The project brings together the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the Norwegian Refugee Council/Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (NRC/IDMC) and the Nansen Initiative6.

 

2. Overview of content

This Thematic Issue presents key pieces of recent research which examine the causes of environmental migration and several evidence-based reports and briefs identifying policy options for Europe in dealing with forced and voluntary relocations. The sources also examine the current state of human rights for environmental migrants and how much evidence currently exists for particular courses of action at local and regional levels.

It is clear that human migration is caused by a complex variety of factors. In ‘Exploring interlinked drivers of human migration in the context of environmental change‘ researchers examine the main reasons for migration and focus on how environmental changes might influence them. The five main factors, outlined by the researchers, which determine whether people stay or go are: economic, social, political, demographic and environmental. Environmental change affects all these main drivers, directly in the case of environmental factors, but also indirectly for the others. The researchers conclude that this framework can be used to help improve knowledge, evaluate policy options, or predict future movements.

The underlying causes and drivers of environmental migration are summarised in ‘Extreme environmental events and human migration: no simple link‘. Researchers have reviewed the available evidence on population movements associated with extreme weather events and found that immobility – the so called ‘trapped populations’ – is an especially relevant policy issue. Vulnerability to extreme events and the ability to move is related to social, economic and political capital. People with low to medium asset levels often become trapped, in their homes during disasters or find that their vulnerability increases where they have been displaced, following a disaster. Where slow onset enviromental change occurs, poor people may become ‘trapped’ because they cannot diversify their livelihoods, or they do not have the resources and capacity to migrate. The researchers conclude that adaptation strategies and mechanisms ensuring rapid responses would establish clear choices for migrants to return home, adapt, or to move elsewhere.

Migration in the context of climate change, combined with other factors such as war or poverty, is increasing, but not all governments are equipped to deal with the effects of migration on populations. The article, ‘Human migration as a result of climate change: how should governments respond?‘, summarises a recent policy brief, published by the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University, which examines environmental migration and makes policy recommendations. One of the main recommendations is that if environmental conditions are so severe that the state has to intervene to resettle populations, extreme care must be taken to reduce the negative effects of such a move. The brief also stresses that where relocation takes place this should be a last resort and that it must be planned as part of a sustainable development programme rather than just a temporary measure.

For governments facing environmentally induced migration, there is a strong evidence base for the value of implementing mobility and adaptation policies, highlighted in the article, ‘Migration: an opportunity to integrate human mobility and climate change adaptation policies‘. Based on a UN report, the article emphasises the need for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) which will help communities affected by climate change-induced hazards to become more resilient. The report stresses that displacement and relocation should be reduced. This could be achieved by strengthening community resilience through, for example, irrigation and water management systems to protect against drought.

Based on a recent book chapter, the article ‘Environmental migrants need better human rights protection‘ highlights a human rights ‘protection gap’ for those people forced to migrate by environmental stress and climate change. The international legal status of those displaced by environmental factors is unclear; there is currently no recognition that people displaced for environmental reasons be given refugee status, a situation unlikely to change. The authors focus on five countries which are all highly affected by the impact of climate change: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Vietnam, none of which currently offer full legal or normative protection to environmental migrants. While these countries offer compensation measures for people who lose homes and land through erosion, the researchers found that these tended to benefit larger and more politically powerful landowners. In contrast, the majority of displaced people become marginalised, landless and have no alternative but to move to nearby villages or towns and cities further afield.

The two final articles deal with how environmental migration is affecting the EU. The article, ‘Time to act on climate change induced migration‘ brings together some recommendations from the 2015 Time to Act: how the EU can lead on climate change and migration report from the Heinrich Böll Foundation. The authors of this think tank report stress that enough knowledge exists to put research evidence into practice and develop suitable policies. They reason that the EU could take a role in leading policy developments to tackle the issue, for example by promoting greater respect for the human rights of migrants and creating safe legal channels for migration.

UK research summarised in the final article, ‘EU migration under climate change: impact depends on current infrastructure‘ reveals that an increase in floods, land degradation and drought produced by climate change could contribute to further migration within Europe, as well as from neighbouring countries. Good emergency planning and adaptation policies which mitigate the wet and dry extremes of our changing climate will reduce these pressures on migration, the authors say.

 

Conclusion

Extreme or sudden environmental events and more long-term changes linked to climate change represent what is possibly the most significant future global policy challenge. In the context of increasing climate variability it is clear that adequate adaptation strategies and mechanisms must be developed. Creating these will surely take unprecedented levels of international collaboration and coordination, and need to result in clear choices for migrants. The need for a structured and managed approach is particularly highlighted by the current migration crisis facing the EU.

The research collated here suggests that if policymakers ensure that the concerns of vulnerable social groups are at the centre of migration policy, this, combined with continuing efforts to adapt to environmental change, will help to improve the resilience of affected communities. Inevitably, more research is needed to formulate appropriate policies and programmes, yet it is clear that now, not tomorrow, is the time to prepare the ground.

1.http://media.swissre.com/documents/sigma2_2015_en_final.pdf

2.World Disasters Report, 2013, IFRC page 228; http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Documents/Secretariat/201410/WDR%202014.pdf

3.Stern, N. 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, London.

4.http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

5. https://www.iom.int/meclep

6. http://www.unhcr.org/54082cc69.html

 In this issue

Exploring interlinked drivers of human migration in the context of environmental change
A framework on the effects of environmental change on human migration has been developed by researchers. It makes clear that environmental change can influence migration directly but also indirectly through impacts on economic, social and political factors. The framework can be used to guide further research, evaluate policy options, or develop predictions for migration under global change, say the researchers.
(more… Download article (PDF)
Extreme environmental events and human migration: no simple link
While extreme environmental events — such as floods and tsunamis — may trigger migrations, the underlying drivers of migration are far more complex and diverse, says new research. The research reviewed the available evidence on population movements associated with extreme weather events and found that people could find themselves ‘trapped’ and vulnerable, whether they stayed at their homes or moved to new locations.
(more…)   Download article (PDF)
Human migration as a result of climate change: how should governments respond?
Human migration as a result of climate change is now a reality. People across Africa, Asia and Latin America are moving in response to unpredictable rainfall patterns. The governments of Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea and small island states, such as the Solomon Islands, have already had to resettle people because of rising seas. A recent policy brief, published by the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University, examines this issue and makes recommendations for policy.
(more…Download article (PDF)
Migration: an opportunity to integrate human mobility and climate change adaptation policies
The migration, displacement and relocation of people needs to be properly addressed in climate change adaptation plans, says a UN report. Among the report’s recommendations, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) should ensure that communities affected by climate change-induced hazards, such as flooding and drought, become more resilient. Migration can also be seen as an adaptation strategy in itself.
(more… Download article (PDF)
Environmental migrants need better human rights protection
A human rights ‘protection gap’ exists for people forced to migrate by environmental stress and climate change, according to researchers. The lack of a legal framework and practices to protect ‘environmental refugees’ stems from the historic and political context of migration issues — and land access rights more broadly — the researchers say in a recently published paper.
(more… Download article (PDF)
Time to act on climate change induced migration
A recent report presents a series of recommendations for how the EU could address the complex issue of climate change induced migration. There is now sufficient evidence to show that environment-related migration is occurring, and the time is right to put recommendations into practice, the report’s authors argue.
(more… Download article (PDF)
EU migration under environmental change: impact depends on current infrastructure
Environmental changes in the future, such as an increase in floods, land degradation and drought could result in changes in migration patterns in Europe, researchers write in a recent analysis. It is difficult to predict these exact migration patterns, however, as they are determined by a complex interplay of economic, political and social factors with environmental change, as well as adaptive capacity.
(more… Download article (PDF)

 

Related articles from Science for Environment Policy

If you are interested in reading more about research into migration as a result of environmental change, here is a selection of articles from the Science for Environment Policy weekly News Alert available to download:

Mediterranean countries use more natural resources than their ecosystems provide (September 2015)
In the Mediterranean region the demand for natural resources and ecological services is two and half times greater than ecosystems’ capacity to provide them, recent research has found. To meet this demand, countries rely on imports, exposing themselves to price volatility and potential resource shortages. According to the authors, a 10% increase in global prices would particularly impact vulnerable countries such as Jordan, which would see its trade balance worsening by 2.4% of its gross domestic product.
Download Article

Mediterranean land degradation threatens food security (Oct 2014)
Climate change, tourism and population growth are all accelerating land degradation in the Mediterranean region, according to recent research. This can have severe impacts: the amount of available agricultural land per capita in the region could have dropped by half by 2020, compared with 1961, the study estimates.
Download article

El Niño Southern Oscillation can be used to predict global flood risk anomalies (January 2015)
Unusually warm or cool Pacific sea surface temperatures, known as El Niño and La Niña, can be used to reliably predict anomalies in flood risk for river basins that cover 44% of the Earth’s land surface, a new study has shown. The researchers also quantified overall flood damage by combining information on flood risk with estimates of damage to economies and numbers of people at risk. This could help improve flood disaster planning, they say.
Download Article

Climate change to shift global spread and quality of agricultural land (February 2015)
New areas of land suitable for agriculture will open up under climate change’s effects, new research predicts, particularly in far northern regions of the world. However, the overall quality of land for farming will decline and many regions, including Europe, could lose large areas of suitable land.
Download Article

To view the Science for Environment Policy website, please visit http://ec.europa.eu/science-environment-policy.