Contact: Ken Bossong, 301-270-6477 x.11
Washington DC – The latest issue of the U.S. Energy Information’s (EIA) “Electric Power Monthly” (with data through March 31, 2017) reveals that renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar – inc. small-scale PV, wind) accounted for 19.35% of net U.S. electrical generation during the first quarter of 2017. Of this, conventional hydropower accounted for 8.67%, followed by wind (7.10%), biomass (1.64%), solar (1.47%), and geothermal (0.47%). Combined, non-hydro renewables accounted for 10.68% of total generation.
The share of domestic electrical production by renewables has now greatly eclipsed EIA’s earlier projections.
Just five years ago, in its 2012 “Annual Energy Outlook,” EIA forecast: “Generation from renewable sources grows by 77 percent in the Reference case, raising its share of total generation from 10 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2035 … The share of the total electricity generation accounted for by nonhydropower renewable generation increases from about 4 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2035.”
If one assumes growth were to continue at about the same annual pace as during the 25-year (i.e., 2010-2035) EIA forecast period, renewables would not be expected to reach 19.35% until roughly the year 2057 — forty years from now.
EIA’s 2012 report further forecast: “Wind [electrical generating] capacity increasing from 39 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 to 70 GW in 2035.” A corresponding chart illustrated that projection and also showed solar reaching 24 GW of capacity in 2035.
In reality, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) latest “Energy Infrastructure Update,” with data for the first three months of 2017, wind generating capacity already totals 84.59 GW while utility-scale solar capacity has reached 25.84 GW (and this does not include distributed small-scale systems such as rooftop solar). *
“Not only has renewable energy’s share of total domestic electrical generation nearly doubled in the past seven years, it has reached a level of output that EIA – just five years ago – did not anticipate happening for another four decades,” noted Ken Bossong, Executive Director of the SUN DAY Campaign. “While one might conclude that EIA’s methodology is seriously flawed, it is also safe to say that renewables – especially solar and wind – by now providing almost one-fifth of the nation’s electrical production, are vastly exceeding expectations and breaking records at an astonishing pace.”
This is clearly evidenced by comparing 2017 to 2016 year-to-date. During the first quarter of 2016, renewables provided 17.23% of total generation versus 19.35% in 2017. Actual generation by renewables is 9.70% greater than just a year ago. In particular, solar (i.e., solar thermal, utility-scale PV and distributed PV) has ballooned by 34.1%, wind has expanded by 11.4%, conventional hydropower has grown by 7.7%, and geothermal has increased by 3.2%. Only utility-scale biomass has declined year-on-year – by 1.6%.